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November
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Payout 0.00
Profit 0.00
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Stake 319
Payout 327.50
Profit 8.50
Yield103 %
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Average odds 3.19
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Stats (W-V-L) 20-2-38
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Greece 2.div: Ethikos Asteras vs. Ethnikos Pireus


Posted by kattis (2010-12-04 13:49 CET)

Under normal circumstances and with just a simple glance at the standings, this looks like one of those typical no bet games, a contest between two mediocre sides that have several issues of their own. In this particular case, however, the timing may be suggesting a small opportunity which I am willing to explore at the given prices.

The hosts, Ethnikos Asteras, are coming off a huge win at Panthrakikos (2-1), their first road win of the season that came after succeeding to actually score for the first time on a trip. Now, it all sounds good but the fact of the matter is, this result was totally…magic. Panathrakikos dominated throughout the entire game, literally pounded on Ethnikos Asteras defense and it was one of those cases where you simply call the ball a b*tch; whatever they would do, the ball would just not go into the net. As Panthrakikos were creating and pressing, it was Ethnikos Asteras that scored on their first counter attack and when Panthrakikos did manage to temporarily equalize, it was Ethnikos Asteras that found a second goal out of nowhere, taking the lead to halftime. The second half continued to be a one sided affair but Ethnikos Asteras managed to hold on and collect three important points. A win is a win, sure, and it’s always welcome but my point is Ethnikos Asteras were extremely lucky to claim this win and there is no way I can all of a sudden have them heavily favored in this upcoming fixture against Ethnikos Pireus, even if the opponent is sitting on the very bottom of the table.

Ethnikos Asteras is still a team that has a mere two wins to show for in their last ten games and three overall in the season while they are still the team with the worst offensive production, scoring just six goals in these first eleven rounds, two of which came last week, meaning that Ethnikos Asteras had scored only four goals in their previous ten games. Furthermore, their defense has conceded a total of eleven goals, thus not exactly the tightest one around and putting it statistically, it’s about a goal in every match.

As for Ethnikos Pireus, their position at the very bottom of the barrel I guess speaks for itself. The season has gone awful for them, especially when considering that last season they were amongst the teams fighting to claim a spot in the promotion playoffs. After the very bad start and the arrival of new coach Pantelidis, Ethnikos Pireus have seemingly improved in the last three rounds and frankly, they deserved to win in two of those occasions. They first hosted Levadiakos, in a game the win slipped away in the final minutes and then, after the scoreless draw at Thrasivoulos, last week they were forced to their third consecutive draw (2-2) hosting Doxa. Ethnikos Pireus were once again very good, created numerous chances to score and win the game but failed to do so and it proved to be a bad time for their defense to slip up, with the team managing to already produce two goals, actually coming back twice, being down 0-1 and 1-2.

I really cant speak about value here, but the way I see it , this game is at least evenly matched and I cannot see why Ethnikos Asteras are priced at around 1,80 average, given all their weaknesses mentioned above and to add something more to it, for a bottom side Ethnikos Pireus haven’t exactly faired that bad on the road, with a 1-2-2 record so far and goals 3-5. It at least proves they are certainly not easy stuff for their opponents. All in all, going back to the specific timing I mentioned earlier, I feel Ethnikos Pireus have a good shot at this to claim points. With Ethnikos Pireus usually a lot more tighter on the road and Ethnikos Asteras being a side that has severe difficulties in scoring, this might actually be a perfect time for a vital win that could up them a bit in the standings cause, frankly, they don’t really deserve to be sitting in last place. Taking the X2 double chance would apparently make more sense and look somewhat safer, considering it’s a risky pick to begin with but as you’ve probably figured out by now, I always like to take my chances and risk when I feel the time is right. It’s only a low stake bet so straight win is my call, a bet worth at prices of 3,50+.


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Latest Forum Posts

VARBET system

19-11-17 19:39 by pep

Portuguese Cup (18/19 November)

19-11-17 19:07 by Fred87

[France Ligue 1] Official thread

19-11-17 17:57 by RonaldGomez

POD 19/11/2017

19-11-17 16:38 by 555

Spain segunda Nov19

19-11-17 15:32 by mantis

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19-11-17 15:05 by sc28

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19-11-17 15:04 by Feri

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19-11-17 14:57 by bangelov

Danish leagues 17.11-20.11

19-11-17 14:46 by Daemon Caledor

NBA Sunday, 11-19-17...

19-11-17 14:39 by bside

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